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  1. Nicole Seaman

    P1.T2.20.2. More probabilities and Bayes rule

    Learning objectives: Calculate the probability of an event for a discrete probability function. Define and calculate a conditional probability. Distinguish between conditional and unconditional probabilities. Explain and apply Bayes’ rule. Questions: 20.2.1. The probability graph below...
  2. Nicole Seaman

    CFA Level 1 CFA: Conditional, unconditional and joint probabilities

    In terms of this CFA playlist, we are still in the early quantitative methods or the foundations of quantitative methods. In the previous video, I reviewed some basic statistical concepts and now I follow that up with a review of some basic or foundational probability concepts. We want to hit...
  3. C

    New to the Forum - simple variance question

    How is the variance calculated? I'm sort of stuck on this problem, although I was able to understand it during the 6-sided die example. Thanks for any help!
  4. Nicole Seaman

    YouTube T2-4 What is statistical independence?

    Variables are independent if and only if (iff) their JOINT probability is equal to the product of their unconditional (aka, marginal) probabilities; i.e., if and only if Prob(X,Y) = Prob(X)*Prob(Y). Further, if variables are independent then their covariance (and correlation) is equal to zero...
  5. Nicole Seaman

    YouTube T2-3 Probability Matrix

    The probability matrix includes joint probabilities on the "inside" and unconditional (aka, marginal) probabilities on the outside. The key relationship is joint probability = unconditional * conditional. Here is David's XLS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/thqkesz65niutil/1204-yt-probability-matrix.xlsx
  6. A

    YouTube T2-3a Summary of joint vs unconditional vs conditional probability

    Hi I was trying to understand the difference between Joint Probability and Conditional Probability I came across this post of yours. https://www.bionicturtle.com/forum/threads/p2-t6-307-hazard-rate-malz-section-7-2.6932/#post-42375 AND What I do not understand is the difference between...
  7. David Harper CFA FRM

    Bayes Theorem: two approaches

    Here is a recent question I wrote to test Bayes Theorem (which has been reintroduced into the FRM) 1. Tree Approach I have typically used a (binomial) tree to visualize this sort of problem. You start the tree with the unconditional (aka, marginal) probabilities which are the probabilities...