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Surplus ar risk

Thread starter #1
Hi David,

Slide 44 (2012.T8 b Investment), the shortfall should be (surplus + surplus growth) - SAR...
You used surplus - SAR ($20-$18.1).

Please verify and advise.
Thanks
Imad
 

David Harper CFA FRM

David Harper CFA FRM
Staff member
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#2
Hi Imad,

I don't disagree, Surplus at Risk (SaR) continues to be a major feedback item to GARP: different definitions have been employed in Jorion vs. practice questions.

please note: (surplus + surplus growth) - SAR = ($20 surplus + $4.6 expected growth) - (1.64 * $13.80 volatility of surplus) = 24.6 future expected surplus - $22.70 "SaR" = $1.9 that I show for "shortfall" so I think we actually agree, it's an issue of (to me) of how GARP wants to define SaR (as my slide shows, I think there can be three definitions), Thanks,
 
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