#### wrongsaidfred

##### Member

I need to apologize in advance for a somewhat confusing question.

I realize that volatility (according to GARCH, EWMA, SMA) is the quare root of the weighted average of the squared realized returns over a certain time period. Does the term "realzied volatility" mean anything? In other words, if the volatility forecast for today was .0005 and the return was .02 (squared would be .000004), does .000004 actually represent anything in terms of a "realized volatility"? Obviously, it would be used in one of the above methods for finding the updated volatility, but, besides that, does the quantity have any real meaning?

Thanks,

Mike