Week in Financial Education (May 3, 2021)
Hello, welcome to another WIFE! Our FRM® forum was super busy last week. I wrote a long reply to the question (link below) about the interpretation of foreign exchange (FX) quotes. We have experience here. This is one of many examples of where we (members in this forum) prompted a correction to GARP®’s imprecise syntax references (in actual questions) to a “USD/EUR exchange rate”; e.g., 2016-P1-Q6. My advice is to disregard the domestic/foreign FX monikers because they are relative to each counterparty (so they don’t give you actual guidance). The proper FX quote convention syntax is base/quote, as in EURUSD (aka, EUR/USD) where the pair’s first currency is the base and the second currency is the quote (aka, price) currency. This may be initially confusing because EURUSD refers mathematically to the ratio USD/EUR, as in $X.XX US dollars per 1.00 unit of EUR. But it is ultimately convenient: given a quote of $1.21 EURUSD (i.e., EUR is the base), an increase in the quote (the number) refers to an appreciation in the base currency (it takes more dollars to purchase one Euro). The major currencies are ranked, with EUR as first, so by convention the preference is EURUSD and USDEUR is unconventional. If you really want to also use direct-versus-indirect, then know that a direct quote refers to a quote where your domestic currency is the quote (aka, price) currency, while an indirect quote refers to where your domestic currency is the base currency. Consequently, a quote of $1.21 EURUSD is direct if you are based in New York, but indirect if you are based in Paris.
New Practice Questions
1. P1.T2.21.3. Returns, volatility and non-normal distributions https://www.bionicturtle.com/forum/threads/p1-t2-21-3-returns-volatility-and-non-normal-distributions.23782/
2. P2.T9.21.3. Refining alpha in portfolio construction https://www.bionicturtle.com/forum/threads/p2-t9-21-3-refining-alpha-in-portfolio-construction.23784/
Forum News
FRM® PART 1
1. IT skills after FRM https://www.bionicturtle.com/forum/threads/it-skills-after-frm.23786/
2. [T2. Regression] @Parsimony asks about GARP’s bivariate confidence interval diagrams https://trtl.bz/2RmHh5Z
3. [T3. Interest rates] Implied forward rates differ only due to the cosmetics of compound frequency https://trtl.bz/3vyKazC
4. [T3. Options] Impact of stock dividend on option price https://trtl.bz/3xEqrAh
5. [T3. Mortgage & MBS] Does negative convexity imply also negative duration? https://trtl.bz/3ecQkQg
6. [T4 CAPM] Does the Market portfolio include the riskfree asset? https://trtl.bz/339B408
7. [T4. Value at Risk, VaR] @mbbx5va2 makes a keen observation about the difference in delta-gamma VaR between a long versus short option position https://trtl.bz/3eM6wa0
8. [T4. Bond VaR] Thank you @lushukai for a great answer to analytical bond VaR using duration and convexity given yield volatility https://trtl.bz/2Re1HhE
9. [T4. Binomial OPM] Do up-/down-jump probabilities influence option price? https://trtl.bz/3ebJp9E
10. [T4. Key rates] If each of the key rates is shifted, then all rates are shifted by one basis point https://trtl.bz/2PIaWGx
11. [T4. FX] FX quote convention https://trtl.bz/3xJPYIj
FRM® PART 2
1. [T5. Expected shortfall, ES] When do we slice the tail to estimate expected shortfall (ES)? https://trtl.bz/3nEK2vL
2. [T6. Credit value adjustment, CVA] CVA is an EL designed for the bilateral trade context (versus unilateral loan exposure) https://trtl.bz/3f3bvU7
3. [T6. Counterparty credit risk] (*) Exposure profile of CDS https://www.bionicturtle.com/forum/threads/p2-t6-413-credit-exposure-profiles-gregory.7774/post-88171
4. [T6. Extreme value theory, EVT] EVT GEV versus POT https://trtl.bz/3aWDcwr
5. [T6. Counterparty credit] Initial margin (IM) posted unilaterally versus bilaterally https://trtl.bz/3aY1GW1
6. [T7. OpRisk] Should a risk culture be profitable? https://trtl.bz/3nDIVfQ
7. [T7. Basel] What is procyclical amplification? https://trtl.bz/3xAz7b3
8. [T7. Model risk] If the confidence and horizon match, why would different people retrieve different one-day 95.0% value at risk (VaR) estimates? https://trtl.bz/3aUxPh6
9. [T8. Repos] (*) Why a repo investor will accept general collateral https://trtl.bz/3gSf9m9
10. [T9. Investment] Equalizing beta in Bodie’s T-line for Treynor measure https://trtl.bz/3ePvqWe
11. [T9. Economic capital, EC] Why is RORAC inferior to RAROC? https://trtl.bz/3aYY0DD
Curated Links (items you might like)
Risk
1. 5 Tips to Making Board Risk Reports Meaningful Tools for Decision-Making (Carol Williams) https://trtl.bz/3edGe1d
2. Should we abandon risk assessment, risk management, and risk appetite? (Norman Marks) https://trtl.bz/3ukQqdW
3. COVID-19: Implications for business (McKinsey) https://trtl.bz/3nKVhTd
4. Why Business Interruption Risk Affects Us All https://www.brinknews.com/why-business-interruption-risk-affects-us-all/ Dirk Wegener is president of the Federation of European Risk Management Associations (FERMA)
5. Mitigating Risk for Asset Owners — Claiming Compliance with the GIPS Standards https://trtl.bz/3efLYaK
6. Six Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty https://hbr.org/2021/04/6-strategies-for-leading-through-uncertainty
ASSOCIATIONS
1. Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP)
- Risk Management in Uncertain Times: How to Prepare for Both the Expected and Unexpected https://trtl.bz/3egLy4g
- Three Model Risk Management Lessons from COVID-19 https://trtl.bz/2RkN10n
- With CECL in Force, Banks Remain Cautious on Loss Reserves https://trtl.bz/3nOL0FF
- Natural Language Processing Sharpens Its Focus on Financial Risk https://trtl.bz/3tg6Gf5 References some interesting Fintech/Regtech companies: Scienaptic Systems Inc, Eigen Technologies, Amenity Analytics, and Behavox
2. PRMIA Announces the Champions of the 2021 Risk Management Challenge https://trtl.bz/3efW7Ep
CLIMATE
1. The Texas Blackout: Even Climate-Related Financial Risk is Bigger in Texas https://trtl.bz/3nIyUOx The Polar Vortex
2. How to assess the multiple interacting risks of climate change (Carbon Brief) https://trtl.bz/2RkKtPR
3. Emerging hydrogen industry can help tackle climate change. Managing complex risks is key (Allianz) https://www.agcs.allianz.com/news-and-insights/news/hydrogen-energy.html
DIGITAL (DATA, ANALYTICS)
1. FireEye’s M-Trends 2021 Report https://www.fireeye.com/current-threats/annual-threat-report/mtrends.html
2. The strategy-analytics revolution (McKinsey) https://trtl.bz/3efMcyC
3. The Future of AI Regulation: Draft Legislation from the European Commission Shows the Coming AI Legal Landscape https://trtl.bz/3edGLAs
4. What is Schrems II and how does it affect your data protection in 2021? https://trtl.bz/3ebRQSt
BOOKS
1. Joachim Klement, CFA: Three Geo-Economics Trends to Watch https://trtl.bz/3tmOfpe “His latest monograph, Geo-Economics [CFA Institute], is a vastly ambitious endeavor.” He also writes a terrific substack at https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/
2. Rewriting the Rules https://www.brunswickgroup.com/judy-samuelson-new-business-rules-i18712/ Interview with July Samuelson of the well-regarded Six New Rules of Business
3. Book Review: Valuation (7th Edition) https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2021/04/29/book-review-valuation/